Graphic shows why contact block against Covid-19 are so important
Major events fall away, the family visit for Easter, and in front of the door you may only mean for good reason: The measures to contain the Coronavirus in Germany, big cuts for the population. However, in the face of rising case numbers is likely to occur in some people, the question of the meaningfulness of the strict requirements. As of today – 9. April – there are in Germany of 113,000 proven infections.
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Nevertheless, there are first signs that the strict requirements show effect. The period in which the number of cases doubling has, in the course of the past week have significantly extended, and now stands at around 16 days. The longer this period lasts, the better, because a rising doubling value indicates a decelerated propagation of the pathogen.
Also, researchers from the German Max-Planck-society (MPI) have calculated how effective the current Anti-Corona measures. On the Basis of a model calculation, they came to the conclusion that The measures taken work – even if the case numbers still rising. Thus, especially since the 22 has. March existing contact barrier slows the spread of the Virus enormously out.
In Germany, the public life in the course of the March was run in three steps. Thus, the Federal government went a slightly gentler way than, for example, China, the abriegelte the worst-affected Region, Hubei practically overnight.
The individual measures at a Glance:
The MPI researchers calculated how the individual measures are expected to be on the number of new infections have been affected and signed by the different developments in a graph (see graph below). Without any measures, the number of new infections would be increased, therefore, strongly (grey line). The restrictions at major events and the closure of kindergartens and schools flattened out a little in the curve according to the MPI computation. However, only the contact barrier was the way that the hoped-for trend reversal: According to this model, the results of this is that the number of new infections drops.
“We see a clear effect of the contact lock 22. March, and, of course, the contribution of each individual Person,” says Viola pries Mann, research group leader at the Max-Planck-Institute for dynamics and self-organization. “Our society can really be proud of the fact that they managed this turnaround.” The number of New infections waxes in Germany since the last weekend, much slower.
Note: model calculations are not an exact science and subject to some statistical fluctuations. You are also not a forecast, but to show possible scenarios, the arrival, under certain conditions, on the Basis of calculations likely to be. Based on the current Situation, this means that It does not need to hold all people to the contact barrier, so that the calculation is based on wrong assumptions.
200,000 of Corona cases in the absence of measures
The researchers have also developed a Worst-Case scenario. “Our model calculation shows that we had, in the meantime, around 200,000 confirmed infections, if it’s about the mild restrictions of 8. March would have remained, not to mention, if there were no any measures,” the man Praised.
Even if the calculations to send positive signals – a reason to sound the all-clear, they are not. “Now, if the restrictions are lifted, we are back at the very beginning,” says Viola pries guy. “We see quite clearly that The case numbers in two weeks, depend on our behavior now.” The emergency operation has to stop, according to the calculation of the researchers, therefore, for about two weeks, in which social contacts to a Minimum.
Easing in two weeks?
The rules to be followed in the next two weeks continue, it could give according to the MPI, in the best scenario, only a few Hundred new infections a day. This could be tracked down cause the Virus-containment re-entry in the Phase of the so-called Containment: contacts of the Infected can be targeted in isolation. “Caution” is offered still, the man Praised, “but hopefully with considerably fewer restrictions”.
Also, Minister of health, Jens Spahn (CDU) expressed in the Corona-crisis least cautiously optimistic. After Easter, the Prime Minister of the country should come together to discuss a loosening of individual Anti-Corona measures. Far-reaching relaxations Spahn, however, rejected initially. Also regarding the infection figures, he showed himself full of hope: He was cautiously optimistic that the now-anticipated summit won’t be in the number of infections is too large.
The world health organisation WHO warned last but not before an early easing of the measures in Europe – the situation is still “worrying”.
Sources: Max Planck Society / Johns-Hopkins-University
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