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The number of Corona-Infected in Germany, according to a study, estimated at a minimum of 1.8 million – and thus ten times higher than previously officially stated. This was the result of a scientific study of the Corona pandemic affected place Gangelt in the district of Heinsberg. Were published the results on Monday from the University of Bonn.
The district is one of the earliest and strongest of the Corona-pandemic areas covered in Germany. In Gangelt is also to be understood that most of the infections occurred abruptly over a carnival session. That was elsewhere the case, therefore, a conclusion or estimate for the whole of Germany on the basis of the Gangelt-data is not uncontroversial.
The Situation is only partially comparable with other regions of Germany, it is pointed out in the study.
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Heinsberg-study: Up to 1.8 million Corona-Infected in Germany
The participating researchers, to virologists, Hendrik Streeck interviewed and tested in Gangelt, a total of 919 people in 405 households, in order to draw conclusions on the infection to happen in Germany draw. In the centre of the study was to determine the mortality rate, i.e. the proportion of deaths among the Infected stand. The study of the already published confirmed between the result, according to which 15 percent of the residents of Gangelt infection by made. From this, the researchers determined the mortality rate in Gangelt at 0.37 percent.
With the mortality rate according to the researchers, on the basis of the number of the deceased, also for other places in Germany, with the other infection rates, to estimate how many people in Corona are infected, or of goods. The comparison of this figure with the officially reported Infected leads to the so-called dark figure.
The extrapolation is based on data from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) from Sunday, around 162.600 officially reported infections and nearly 6700 deaths. The RKI itself assumes that the number of unreported cases is considerably higher.
For the whole of Germany, the extrapolation results in Infected, according to which around 1.8 million. “Our data can now be used for the first Time is very well appreciated, how many people have been infected after an outbreak event,” said study leader Streeck. In addition, apparently, one-fifth of infection without symptoms of disease the course. This confirmed the importance of the sanitation and clearance rules.
Video
Virologists examine COVID-19-spread in the circle Heinsberg
Conclusions from the study “are the responsibility of the society and the politics”
But, from led Streeck more: “What are the conclusions to be drawn from the study results, depends on many factors, which go beyond a purely scientific view,” says the researcher. “The evaluation of the findings and the conclusions for the concrete decisions are the responsibility of the company and the policy.”
The study was commissioned by the NRW state government.
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