Ontario’s coronavirus numbers may have peaked, new modelling suggests

Ontario health officials have revealed updated coronavirus modelling data that shows the province has already peaked in cases among community spread and numbers appear to be trending downwards towards a best case scenario.

Adalsteinn (Steini) Brown, Dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto, revealed the modelling data at Queen’s Park on Monday, alongside Ontario’s associate chief medical officer of health Barbara Yaffe and  President and CEO of Ontario Health Matthew Anderson.

“Projections now show Ontario’s COVID-19 outbreak behaving more like best case,” the report highlighted.

However, Brown said that while community spread of COVID-19 has peaked, cases in long-term care homes, retirement homes appear and any other congregate settings to continue to grow.

This is the second time Ontario health officials have shown this type of projection data to the public.

On April 3, the province first revealed projection numbers that Ontario could see 80,000 cases and just under 1,600 deaths by the end of April, if the current measures in place are upheld. The province is no where near those numbers as Ontarians approach the end of the month.

As of Monday, Ontario reported 11,184 cases of the virus with 584 deaths.

Now the cumulative cases for the span of the entire outbreak is less than 20,000, “substantially lower” than 80,000 cases previously predicted for the end of April and 300,000 cases for the end of the pandemic.

Ontario health officials said while earlier models predicted a peak in cases in May, public health interventions including widespread adherence to physical distancing have accelerated the peak to now.

“The sacrifices people are making to stay home and wash their hands are making a difference,” the report added.

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The data also shows that Ontario is facing two different disease processes. One, that community spread of the virus appears to have peaked and is coming under control, two, virus spread in long-term care and other congregate settings seems to be growing.

Three scenarios were modeled for ICU (intensive care unit) and acute ward bed demands:

• South Korea (“Best Case”): Restrained growth in infected cases slowed early through impact of public health measures.
• Ontario in March (“Medium Case”): Moderate growth in infected cases slowed later on through impact of public health measures.
• Italy (“Worst Case”): Moderate then rapid growth in COVID-19 cases that continue to climb at an exponential rate without public health measures.

“Based on recent data, if current measures restricting spread of the disease remain in place, Ontario appears to be tracking toward the South Korea (“best case”) scenario,” the report said.

The report also said the rate of growth in COVID-19 hospitalizations has slowed, while the number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care units has remained relatively constant over the past week.

“Everybody who has participated in the public health initiatives, you’ve made a difference,” Anderson said, referring to the graph where Ontario’s ICU’s are “trending better than our best case scenario.”

The report indicated the wave of new community spread cases of COVID-19 in Ontario appears to have peaked.

“Public should continue to stay home and maintain physical distancing to ensure the province continues to stop the spread of COVID-19 and flatten the curve. These actions are making a difference and people need to stay the course and stay strong in order to save lives,” the report said.

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